If the Peak Oil Musical Chairs hypothesis proves valid, and many perish in the future in the process of the competition between nations over fossil fuels energy , the result can only be described as an awful waste of humanity for which history will not be kind on those responsible.
How to mitigate the effects? Similar to mortgage-backed securities, War Crimes Compensation-Backed Securities (WCCBS) are based on the likelihood of cash flows generated from war-crimes compensation, and the distribution of wealth they create.
Such a financial instrument could widen the beneficiary base of POMC’s brutal processes to also include the victims.
The compensation process
Responsible agencies such as banks, law firms, financial institutions and big-data organisations would assess claims made by war victims, providing them with an initial upfront sum of money and other benefits in order to maintain survival and continuity. They would also initiate on behalf of victims legal actions aimed at securing full, long-term compensation.
Interim payments and awards, together with support actions for victims, are then sold on the open market for investors as packaged and collateralised securities and derivatives.
Judges may decide that compensation for individuals and corporate entities adversely impacted by war is to be paid by the foreign aggressor, or, in the case of civil wars, from the future national wealth of the victims’ countries.
In the case of the Iraq war of 1991 or 2003, affected civilians had no say in their ruler’s actions, or the decision to invade their country. Still, hundreds of thousands died, and millions more have become victims of the war, whether directly or indirectly. As for civil and hybrid wars such as those in Syria, Libya or Yemen, judges will see civilian victims as not party to the conflict as instigators, but they are the primary casualties of war.
Compensation will benefit securities holders, legal professionals and support bodies, as well as victims.
It is likely that claims in the Middle East alone will be settled at multi-trillion dollar levels, with ongoing payments for another 100 years.
The scheme may work as a deterrent to future wars, when the warring parties appreciate the long-term financial consequences.
Potential Risks and commercial prospects
The scheme my work as an encouragement to wedge wars when entities, private or otherwise, push governments to start conflicts for the sake of compensations paid after wars they lead to, benefiting as 3rd-party, in the process.
By allowing new-money transfers to struggling POMC-affected communities (or what is left of them), WCCBS could be one of many mainstream financial instruments employed to remove deadlock over the narrow distribution of central bank funds.
Market dynamics will then return those financial allocations into the wider commonwealth of nations.
For victims in the second-tier world, no matter how little compensation they receive from WCCBS, it is better for them to engage with the process. For one thing it increases awareness of their inhumane condition, which may enhance their chance of survival within a poverty-ridden forgotten POMC world.
The enterprise that masters this new art of wealth redistribution will become the shadow welfare system for POMC-affected communities and territories. It would be comparable in size and strategic value to that of the 19th century British Empire.
WCCBS is no less than a means of matching conflict-driven mass mortality with synthetic money and the creation of purchasing power, and spreading these over larger population groups: primarily citizens of the emerging green or smart cities scattered around the world. One could liken this to human recycling.
The fundamental weakness of WCCBS is that monetising mass mortality into a higher synthetic purchasing power will lead to even a greater amount of fossil-fuel energy being consumed in the production of all the goods and services needed to satisfy that newly-synthesised purchasing power.
This would amplify fossil fuel shortages, leading in turn to even more violence in POMC-blighted territories.
The concept outlined in this paper was envisaged after 2003 American-British invasion of Iraq and being constructed on the potential of countless compensation claims made or will be made for compensations. Given the overwhelming number of claims, in the process of being documented by New Middle East Pty Ltd, Australia, that are likely to be honoured in court, they can be collateralised and sold on the open market for future profit gains.
All Rights Reserved. New Middle East Pty Ltd 2015. Sydney, Australia.